Calendrier du mois de avril 2024
| Programme de la semaine précédente | Programme de la semaine | Programme de la semaine suivante | |
| (du 2024-03-18 au 2024-03-25) | (du 2024-03-25 au 2024-03-31) | (du 2024-03-31 au 2024-04-07) |
Semaine du 2024-03-25 au 2024-03-31 |
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 29/03/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-09
MALLON Kim Lan (PSE)
Environmental Regulation and Barriers to Technology Adoption: Experimental Evidence from Urban Vietnam
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 29/03/2024 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1-14
CINTA GONZALEZ CABRAL Ana(OECD)
HUGGER FELIX(OECD)
The Global Minimum Tax and the taxation of MNE profit
écrit avec with Massimo Bucci, Maria Gesualdo and Pierce O’Reilly
The Global Minimum Tax (GMT) introduces significant changes to the international tax architecture and
thereby to the taxation of large multinational enterprises. This paper assesses the impact of the GMT using
new and unique data on MNE worldwide activity building on comprehensive estimates of global low-taxed
profit.
The paper has four main findings. First, the GMT reduces the incentives to shift profits, resulting in an
estimated fall in global shifted profits by around half. Second, the GMT will reduce low-taxed profit
worldwide through reduced profit shifting and top-up taxation. The global amount of MNE profit taxed below
the 15% minimum effective rate is estimated to fall by more than two thirds. Third, the GMT is estimated
to increase CIT revenues by USD 155-192 billion per year, or between 6.5-8.1% of current global CIT
revenues. The distribution of these gains across jurisdictions strongly depends on the implementation
choices of governments. Finally, the GMT is estimated to reduce tax rate differentials across jurisdictions.
This could have potentially important impacts on the efficiency of the global allocation of investment and
economic activity.
Texte intégral
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 28/03/2024 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
GONZALES-AGUADO Eugenia (TSE)
Labor mobility over the business cycle
This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of internal migration in an economy with labor market frictions and quantifies its role in mitigating asymmetric shocks. Labor mobility is viewed as a key mechanism to stabilize the economy from regional shocks in currency unions. However, this view does not take into account the equilibrium effects of worker mobility in the presence of search frictions. First, I gather new evidence connecting individual migration decisions to aggregate economic outcomes over the business cycle. I show that during the Great Recession in the United States labor flows across states strongly responded to changes in economic conditions. Moreover, I find that in economic expansions job-to-job transitions account for most of the interstate movements, whereas during downturns there is a significant increase in the relocation of unemployed workers across states. Then, I develop an equilibrium model with fluctuations in aggregate productivity in which search frictions are crucial to generating the observed patterns in the data, and in particular, to explain the procyclicality of migration. I calibrate the model to the U.S. economy during the Great Recession and study the implications of labor mobility on local and aggregate labor markets.
Du 28/03/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-14
SATPATHY Aviman (PSE)
*
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 28/03/2024 de 12:30 à 14:00
Sciences Po
ANGELUCCI Charles (MIT Sloan)
*
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 28/03/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-14
FRANKEL David (Melbourne Business School)
Equilibrium Selection in Participation Games, with Applications to Security Issuance
In many applied settings, an activity requires a critical mass of participants to be worthwhile. This can give rise to multiple equilibria. We study seven well-known equilibrium selection theories: two heuristic arguments, two models with rational players, and three from the evolutionary literature. With one exception, each relies on strategic complementarities. We weaken this to a mild single crossing property and show that the theories' predictions have a common form: an agent plays a best response to some fictional distribution of the participation rate of her opponents. We then use this robust framework to study security design in a setting in which issuance revenue is used to fund investments that are, in turn, used to pay distributions on the securities. We show that all monotone securities are underpriced and that debt is optimal as it is the least underpriced. Moreover, underpricing in equity offerings can be mitigated by share rationing and a minimum sales requirement.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 28/03/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R2-21
WALDINGER Fabian (LMU Munich)
Climbing the Ivory Tower: How Socio-Economic Background Shapes Academia
écrit avec Ran Abramitzky, Lena Greska, Santiago Perez, Joseph Price, and Carlo Schwarz
This paper explores the impact of socioeconomic background on academic careers in the United States. We construct a novel dataset that links the near-universe of US academics to full-count censuses, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between parental occupation, socioeconomic status, and academic outcomes. The findings indicate that US academics are heavily selected based on socioeconomic background, with having a father who was a professor serving as the strongest predictor of becoming a professor oneself. We also document significant variations in socioeconomic selectivity by academic discipline and university. Conditional on making it to academia, there are no differences in careers and scientific productivity, indicating that the initial selection process may play a crucial role in determining one's academic success. Additionally, we show that socioeconomic background influences a scientist's choice of subfield and thereby the direction of research.
Behavior seminar
Du 28/03/2024 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
CASELLA Alessandra (Columbia)
Women, Men, and Polya Urns. On the Persistence of Underrepresentation
écrit avec Laura Caron, Alessandra Casella and Victoria Mooers
In a world where the majority and the minority group have equal distributions of talent, where candidates are objectively and accurately evaluated, and no discrimination occurs, the underrepresentation of the minority group in selective positions is nonetheless highly sticky. If the sample of candidates from the minority group is numerically smaller, at equal distribution of talent, the most qualified candidate is more likely to belong to the majority sample, mirroring its larger numerical size. If future samples of candidates respond to the realized selection in the expected direction–increasing if the selection came from the sample, decreasing or increasing less if it did not–the higher probability of success in the majority sample will persist. We capture this process with a well-known statistical model: the Polya urn. The richness of existing results and the streamlined model allow us to study and compare different policy interventions. A simple app (https://caron.shinyapps.io/Women-Men-Polya-Urns/) allows readers to run their own experiments. Two robust results are that temporary affirmative actions interventions have long -term equalizing effects, and that any decline in the quality of selected candidates is self-correcting, even while the intervention lasts.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 27/03/2024 de 16:30 à 18:00
R2.01
LANG Meghan (World Bank)
Economic Inclusion through Entrepreneurship: Evidence on Building Skills for Women
écrit avec Megan Lang (Development Research Group, The World Bank) and Julia Seither (Universidad del Rosario)
Rural, low-income households often face high income volatility, and women are disproportionately affected by negative shocks to production. Can entrepreneurship improve the economic status of rural, low-income women? We randomize access to an entrepreneurship training program in rural Uganda. The program significantly improves women's earnings. Treated women are 19% more likely to run profitable businesses 18 months post-program and profits are 15% higher. The program also bolsters women's ability to cope with large, negative shocks: high-frequency data shows that treated women fare significantly better during the first COVID-19 lockdown than women in the control group. Exploiting social network data, we detect significant, positive spillovers to the control group and adjust estimates accordingly. Our findings highlight a new role for entrepreneurship training programs as a tool for equitable rural development.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 27/03/2024 de 16:00 à 17:30
R2.20
GARCIA Sébastian (PSE)
The pearl of the Empire? Private capital and the "mise en valeur" of rubber in colonial French Indochina.
écrit avec Simon Bittmann and Sebastián García Cornejo
This project studies colonial private capital in the rubber sector in French Indochina during the interwar. We extend the discussion about the "profitability of Empires" in two directions: to French concessionary firms, and by focusing on the distribution of profits, and incipient success, rather than levels. Using complete plantation-level data on firms' life-cycles, returns, board members and labor composition, we test the hypothesis of an "imperialist moment" in French economic/business history, exploring two main drivers of success - the type of capital invested and the reliance on forced labor - interacting with state support during the Great Depression
Economic History Seminar
Du 27/03/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1.09
GAUTHIER Stéphane (PSE)
Late height growth and adult maturity from historical quasi-exhaustive panel data
Combining height data from two 19th-century French conscription
sources yields a quasi-exhaustive individual-level longitudinal dataset
for men from their 21st year, allowing for an assessment of late height
growth and age of maturity. Among 2,923 men born in 1887 in
Corr`eze, annual growth ranges from 0.29 cm to 0.39 cm. Most men
mature around ages 21-22, but the shortest in the first quintile grow
1.6 cm, reaching 162.7 cm at ages 26-27.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 26/03/2024 de 17:00 à 18:00
R2-01
HERNáNDEZ MELIáN Beatriz (PSE)
Local Public Finance and Extreme Climate Events
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 26/03/2024 de 17:00 à 18:00
Zoom
WAMBUGU NDIRANGU Anthony (University of Nairobi)
*
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 26/03/2024 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
CONCONI Paola (Oxford)
A Political Disconnect? Evidence From Votes on EU Trade Agreements?
écrit avec Florin Cucu, Federico Gallina, and Mattia Nardotto
It has been argued that public engagement in democracies has declined in the last decades due to a growing disconnect between citizens and their representatives. The European Union is a case in point, if not the most prominent example of an institution seen as suffering from a “democratic deficit”. Even the directly elected members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are often accused of being disconnected from the interests of European citizens. However, little is actually known about whether European legislators respond to their voters’ interests when making critical policy choices. We address this question by studying the determinants of MEPs’ votes on the approval of EU trade agreements. Against widespread Eurosceptic arguments, we find that these votes reflect the trade policy interests of MEPs’ constituencies. The results are robust to controlling for a rich set of variables and fixed effects to account for potential confounding factors, and using different sets of votes and econometric methodologies. An instrumental variable approach supports a causal interpretation of our findings.
STEP (Seminar of Trade Economists in Paris)
Du 26/03/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-13
ANDRIEU Elodie (PSE)
Multi-establishment Firm Structure, Subsidies and Spillovers
écrit avec John Morrow
How do firms diffuse resources, and does this result in spillovers far from headquarters? We show subsidies induce French firms to hire new workers, mainly in new establishments and often in new commuting zones, with little evidence of reallocation. The most hiring responsive occupations are techies and support workers in line with R&D targeting. We estimate a subsidy employment spillover elasticity of .11 at the commuting zone level within industry, but weak effects in the commuting zone. Dispersed industries have half this elasticity and concentrated industries twice this elasticity. While subsidies are awarded to headquarters in advanced areas, firms redistribute effects more broadly.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 26/03/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
ELISEEVA Vitaliia ()
The New Soviet Woman: Long-term influence of WW2-induced changes in sex ratios on family formation
Using local variation in 17 million World War II military deaths in the USSR, I show that war-driven male scarcity led to a long-term increase in the marriage rates and decrease in the single parenting by females. Using survey data, I document that modern-day attitudes towards the importance of family formation and gender roles in the family are more conservative in historically more male-scarce localities. To explain why my main result goes against the literature, I show that it can be explained by both high pre-war Female Labor Force Participation and low post-war migration. Additionally, I present the evidence suggesting that new gender norms diffused vertically from parents to children rather than horizontally in affected locations.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 25/03/2024 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
LAOHAKUNAKORN Krittanai (University of Surrey)
Monopoly pricing with optimal information
écrit avec Guilherme Carmona
We analyze a monopoly pricing model where information about the buyer's valuation is endogenous. Before the seller sets a price, both the buyer and seller receive private signals that may be informative about the buyer's valuation. The joint distribution of these signals, as a function of the valuation, is optimally chosen by the players. In general, players have conflicting incentives over the provision of information. As a modelling device, we assume that an aggregation function determines the information structure from the choices of the players. We characterize the payoffs and prices that can arise in equilibrium for a natural class of aggregation functions. When both players are initially uninformed, equilibrium prices do not depend on the buyer's valuation. In contrast, if the buyer initially knows her own valuation, the price in every equilibrium is always equal to either the buyer's valuation or the uniform monopoly price
Régulation et Environnement
Du 25/03/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1-15
MISSIRIAN Anouch (TSE)
*Can Demand-Side Interventions Rebuild Global Fisheries?
Despite recent improvements in the ecological status of wild-capture fisheries, a significant share (33%) of global marine stocks remains overexploited. While top-down management has been shown to work in many settings, there is growing interest in demand-side interventions, which work through consumer-originated price signals to incentivize reduced fishing pressure. The effectiveness of demand-side interventions would rely, in part, on a large enough supply elasticity of fisheries, though this crucial statistic is notoriously difficult to estimate and remains elusive in the literature. Using plausibly exogenous variation in fish prices and extensive data on the world's fisheries, we derive an empirical approach to estimate this elasticity using an instrumental variables estimator. We find it is very low -- similar to that observed in comparable sectors. This suggests that even if prices did respond to demand-side interventions, the supply response would be small. To determine whether the ensuing supply response would have meaningful ecological consequences, we combine a bioeconomic model of fisheries with a global model of supply and demand for seafood calibrated with our estimates. We find that even interventions that lead to dramatic demand shifts are unlikely to achieve more than marginal improvements to fisheries status. In contrast, we find that supply-side policies (such as well-enforced fishing quotas), even imperfectly designed or implemented, can result in substantial recovery.